Bahrain: Analyzing Inequities Between Sunnis and Shiites

| May 16, 2012 at 7:14 pm


Bahrain Politics -- Shiite Sunni

Bahrain is again in the news this week. The country and Saudi Arabia are discussing a closer political union—with the obvious aim of safeguarding Sunni control in a Shiite majority country. Meanwhile, Shiite activists burned tires and blocked roads in a protest against detention policies.

Bahrain’s crisis has many causes: the Middle East’s wider Shiite-Sunni rivalry; the region’s longstanding Persian-Arab rivalry; ideas released during the Arab Spring; rising political aspirations from years of watching satellite television.

But the key driver is the horizontal inequities (i.e. inequalities between culturally formed groups) that exacerbate the fault line between the Shiites and Sunnis within the kingdom. Shiite demands may not all be reasonable, but their relative disadvantage in economic, social, and political spheres feed dissatisfaction, and promote instability. Reducing at least some of these inequities is crucial to reducing the instability, which otherwise is likely to fester for years to come. Continue reading →

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What the Swiss Can Teach Us About Development

| May 15, 2012 at 10:53 am


Swiss development modelInternational efforts to help developing countries start with a mental model of how government should be structured. It is based on the most common European model of state building—a model initially developed by France but shared by most countries today. European history did, however, have another model, one that is not well remembered but that may be much more useful for fragile states—the Swiss model. Continue reading →

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Recent Articles on Fragile States Worth Reading

| May 10, 2012 at 12:09 pm


Fragile States artciles links

See below for links on the DRC, Burundi, Pakistan, Azerbaijan, Mauritania, Libya, the relationship between ethnicity and corruption, a new synthesis of recent research, and the new structural economics. Continue reading →

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Comparing Different Theories on the Causes of Conflict

| May 7, 2012 at 1:28 pm


Causes of Conflict

What causes conflict?

There have been many grand theories, each based on a certain interpretation of facts in the belief that patterns repeat themselves over and over again. Although each situation is different, these theories help frame debates, set priorities, and provide alternative lens with which to view specific cases. Since the end of the Cold War, theorists have emphasized economics and identity because ethnic identities have played a greater and geopolitics a lesser role in civil war than previously. Continue reading →

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West Africa: Ethnic Divisions, State Fragility, and Regional Solutions

| May 2, 2012 at 7:09 pm


West Africa Ethnic GroupsThere has been a lot of bad news out of West Africa recently. Coup d’états have destabilized Mali and Guinea-Bissau. Nigeria has seen a series of terrorist attacks. Toureg rebels have conquered northern Mali and declared independence. Cote d’Ivoire is still recovering from its civil war. Meanwhile, there are reports about drug trafficking, al-Qaeda in the Maghreb, and a food crisis in the making.

No region in the world has more fragile states than West Africa. The region, which consists of the fifteen countries stretching from Senegal to Nigeria, exemplifies the problems of state building when surrounded by other fragile states. Pint-sized, expensive markets keep most countries isolated from the dynamic changes globalization is bringing elsewhere. The region’s aggregate GDP is roughly the same as Norway’s—despite having over fifty times more people. Although Ghana and Senegal have made significant political and/or economic gains in recent years, most of the other states have been rocked by war, ethnic or religious clashes, political unrest, famine, or serious economic dislocation at various times over the past two decades. Continue reading →

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Legal Pluralism: Improving Security and Justice in Fragile States

| May 1, 2012 at 12:19 pm


justice security fragile statesImproving security and justice in fragile states is a major theme for political leaders, scholars, and donors. Foreign aid agencies have spent billions attempting to catalyze improvements in these areas within other countries. Yet despite this money and much hard work, the track record of past efforts has been paltry.

Why?

A large part of the reason can be traced to how these issues–and the concept of state building–is approached. Continue reading →

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City Development States: Why Lagos Works Better than Nigeria

| April 29, 2012 at 2:55 pm


Fashola Lagos development stateNigeria is not known for strong governance. On the contrary, it is arguably one of worse governed countries in the world, losing hundreds of billions of dollars to corruption and waste over the past four decades. Yet, it has two important governance achievements worth emulating.

First, it has devised a system of decentralization that has sharply reduced ethnic conflict. And second it has a major metropolis that increasingly is acting like one of a handful of city development states–large urban areas in developing countries that are driving progress forward in a way typically associated with well-managed central governments. Continue reading →

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Initiating and Sustaining Developmental States in Africa

| April 25, 2012 at 6:00 am


What policies and governance conditions are needed in Africa for it to match the economic and social achievements of Asia? This video, from a presentation at Johns Hopkins University, presents some answers. It presents the findings of two research projects, with important implications for the future of development in Africa. Note the focus on developmental states. It is the nature of the regime more than the way it gains power that matters. Continue reading →

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How Ethnic Divisions Become Political Fault Lines

| April 23, 2012 at 8:23 pm


Africa Ethnic Divisions

What type of ethnic divisions and political circumstances are most likely to produce conflict?

There is no easy answer, but there are formulas that can provide a guide.

Joel D. Barkan, Professor of Political Science at the University of Iowa, provides a good one in his chapter on East Africa in the new book On the Fault Line: Managing Tensions and Divisions within Societies. He argues that the presence or absence of severe social divisions and their varying ‘depth’ is a function of the interplay between three variables: Continue reading →

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Political Economic Analysis: Is there a Better Way?

| at 6:09 pm


Political Economy Analysis

Donors have increasingly sought to make use of political economy analysis (PEA) over the past decade, especially in fragile states. At their best, such frameworks provide a much better understanding of how power, sociopolitical dynamics, capacity, informal institutions, incentives, and sources of opposition interact and shape policy decisions and implementation. Diagnosing political drivers and obstacles and capacity assets and constraints ought to improve donor strategies and aid allocation decisions.

Of course, turning this into practical results has not been easy. Analyses can be too vague or broad, not sufficiently relevant (as when opportunities are not identified), or simply wrong (by, for instance, missing key variables). PEA can be done well but have limited effect on donor behavior if the latter is not positioned to take advantage. Continue reading →

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