Tag Archives: borders
Discordant Development – Progress That Increases Instability
Samuel Huntington argued in his 1968 classic Political Order in Changing Societies that rapid development could be highly destabilizing:
Social and economic change—urbanization, increase in literacy and education, industrialization, mass media expansion—extend political consciousness, multiply political demands, broaden political participation. These changes undermine traditional sources of political authority and traditional political institutions; they enormously complicate the problems of creating new bases of political association and new political institutions combining legitimacy and effectiveness. The rates of social mobilization and the expansion of political organization are high; the rates of political organization and institutionalization are low. The result is political instability and disorder. The primary problem of politics is the lag in the development of political institutions behind social and economic change.
Richard Joseph, a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution and a Professor at Northwestern University, discusses a similar point in a recent article on Africa. In it, he introduces the very useful phrase “discordant development,” defining it as:
More than just “unequal development,” but rather how deepening inequalities and rapid progress juxtaposed with group distress can generate uncertainty and violent conflict. (more…)
Best Links on Self-Declared State of Azawad in Mali
Tuareg rebels have declared the independence of the territory under their control in northern Mali, calling their country “Azawad.” Here are best links to information on the area available online: (more…)
New Book on the “Fault Lines” that Plague Fragile States
A new book edited by Jeffrey Herbst, Terence McNamee, and Greg Mills discusses what I consider the most important problem in fragile states: weak social cohesion. It looks at “fragmented and weak states, made up of many nations and cutting across geographical, racial and religious boundaries” and explores why some countries with potential “fault lines” produce conflict while others are better at managing them.
More than a dozen authors contribute case studies on a broad range of countries including South Africa, Northern Ireland, Iraq, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Kenya, India and even Canada and seek solutions that can be transferred elsewhere. (more…)
Horizontal Versus Vertical Social Cohesion: Why the Differences Matter
Social cohesion is an underappreciated but crucial element in development, state building, and poverty reduction.
It is an especially important factor in determining whether a state is fragile or not. As I argued in Fixing Fragile States:
Two factors above all others decide how a country’s political, economic, and societal life evolves: a population’s capacity to cooperate (which depends, for the most part, on the level of social cohesion) and its ability to take advantage of a set of shared, productive institutions (especially informal institutions at the crucial early stages of development when formal institutions are usually feeble and ineffectual). . . . These two ingredients shape how a government interacts with its citizens; how officials, politicians, and businesspeople behave; and how effective foreign efforts to upgrade governance will be. Together with the set of policies adopted by the government, they make up the three major determinants of a country’s capacity to advance.
Fragile states are deficient in both these areas. And the combination of political identity fragmentation and weak national institutions works in a vicious cycle that severely undermines the legitimacy of the state, leading to political orders that are highly unstable and hard to reform. (more…)
Secessionism in Africa: Where Will the Map Change Next?
A new policy paper issued by the Brenthurst Foundation examines the prospects for secessionism in Africa in the aftermath of South Sudan’s independence.
This is an important issue because weak social cohesion is a major problem for states across the continent. Few have the unity or the robust institutions necessary to work well enough to earn legitimacy from their peoples. (more…)
More on Africa, Conflict and Security, Fragile States, Governance, Identity, Politics, Review
Congo’s Elections Unlikely to Bring Gains
Now that the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has released the results for the presidential and parliamentary election that first took place in late November, it is worth taking stock of the whole endeavor.
As I argued in the Christian Science Monitor last week:
Rather than move the country forward, as international observers like the US had hoped, this election has exposed deep rifts in the country and is unlikely to result in better government. Ongoing bloodshed seems inevitable.
The situation should not surprise anyone, given the country’s long history of brutality, government mismanagement, exploitation, and war. But the international community continues to see elections as the most important cure for what ails the country. In fact, elections have repeatedly exacerbated regional tensions.
What the DRC needs is not another national election – especially one that allows corrupt leaders to remain in power – but a rethinking of how the state might be reorganized. In the long run, only a decentralized system of government – or perhaps a partition of the country – is likely to produce accountable and responsible leadership. (more…)
More on Africa, Conflict and Security, Elections, Governance
Ending Conflict in the Horn of Africa
The Nordic Africa Institute has published an excellent paper on one of the world’s most conflict prone regions: the Horn of Africa (which, broadly defined, encompasses Somalia/Somaliland, Eritrea, Djibouti, Ethiopia, and parts of Kenya, Sudan, and Southern Sudan).
Kidane Mengisteab, the author, does an especially good job analyzing “the core and contextual factors” that underlay the large number of “inter-state, intra-state and communal” conflicts that have long plagued the region. By examining history, social relationships, the fragmentation of institutions, and regional politics, the paper is able to get at the driving forces that have created vicious cycles of social exclusion, weak government, and zero sum competition for resources. It correctly articulates that any solution will have to include simultaneous efforts on “diversity management, nation-building, democratization, and institutional reform at all levels.” (more…)
More on Africa, Conflict and Security, Governance, Identity, Review
Is the Map of the Middle East About to Change?
Cross-posted from Global Dashboard.
If people in the Middle East could democratically choose what country they lived in, would they choose the one they are in now?
Amidst all the talk of an Arab Spring, the fragility of the Arab state is often forgotten.
Whereas developed countries are almost always the product of an organic, internally driven process, in the Middle East’s case, the countries are mostly the product of a British-French agreement made in 1916 (Sykes-Picot) that paid little attention to local sociopolitical realities. As a result, few possess the historical roots, social cohesion, and legitimacy necessary to nurture the complex institutions that are a prerequisite for development and democracy. On the contrary, most suffer from both sectarian divisions and weak government—the causes of state fragility.
(more…)
The DRC: is there a better way?
What can you do with US$1.2 billion? Treat over one million HIV/AIDS patients in Africa for one year. Build 200 new university campuses in places such as Ghana. Provide core funding for hundreds of developing country think tanks. Or organize an election in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Which is likely to improve the most number of lives?
