Tag Archives: Growth
Cross-posted from Global Dashboard
Most people in the West believe that Pakistan is an unstable country on the verge of imminent collapse or an explosion of violence. It is consistently portrayed—by politicians, policymakers, and the media—as the most dangerous and dysfunctional state in the world, struggling with terrorism, an out-of-control military, and interreligious conflict.
And yet, Pakistan is included on Goldman Sachs’ list of the next eleven (N-11) most important emerging markets. Although it has (along with Nigeria and Bangladesh) “broad and systematic issues across a range of areas” that will prevent it from fully delivering on its growth potential, the country’s large population (it currently has 180 million people) assures its inclusion. Indeed, within a generation, Pakistan will have the fourth largest number of people in the world, behind only India, China, and the United States, and be a market too significant to ignore. (more…)
Low income countries (LICs) did remarkably well during the crisis. Their annual GDP growth rate declined less than 1 percentage point in 2008 (to 4.7 percent in 2009) and quickly recovered (to 5.9 percent in 2010). Some, such as Ethiopia, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Zambia showed no ill effects, generating growth over 6 percent throughout this period.
There is little doubt that LICs ever-increasing linkages with the BRICs and other large emerging economies provided significant support to their growth during the crisis.
The ever increasing ties between the two groups of countries will bring many benefits to the world’s poorest states. As Justin Yifu Lin, Chief Economist at the World Bank, explains on his blog: (more…)
Even though we have watched it in front of our eyes, it still seems hard to fathom:
Between 2007 and 2012, the Chinese economy will expand by close to 60 per cent. Emerging Asia as a whole will grow by almost 50 per cent. Over the same period, economies of high-income countries will grow by a mere 3 per cent. Who can doubt that the world is undergoing a profound transformation?
I am a little more pessimistic about the long-term growth prospects of emerging markets than PwC, but the below chart (a year old via the Guardian) certainly shows where the world is going: