Tag Archives: Horn of Africa
Somalia’s 20-Year Experiment in Hybrid Governance
By Ken Menkhaus, Davidson College
The below are excerpts from an article originally appearing in World Politics Review.
Later this month, Somalia’s eight-year political transition is scheduled to end with the declaration of a “post-transition” government. Casual observers will be forgiven for assuming such a step signals that, after 21 years of complete state collapse, a functional central government in Somalia is now in place.
The reality is that the post-transition government will be unable to project its authority beyond much of the capital, Mogadishu. Most of the country and parts of the capital itself remain under the de facto control of autonomous strongmen, self-proclaimed regional states, clan militias and the jihadi group al-Shabab. Of these, only al-Shabab has demonstrated any will and capacity to impose basic law and order in its areas of control, but the group is losing ground to multiple armed offensives and is focusing its waning energies on war-fighting, not administration. (more…)
New Book on the “Fault Lines” that Plague Fragile States
A new book edited by Jeffrey Herbst, Terence McNamee, and Greg Mills discusses what I consider the most important problem in fragile states: weak social cohesion. It looks at “fragmented and weak states, made up of many nations and cutting across geographical, racial and religious boundaries” and explores why some countries with potential “fault lines” produce conflict while others are better at managing them.
More than a dozen authors contribute case studies on a broad range of countries including South Africa, Northern Ireland, Iraq, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Kenya, India and even Canada and seek solutions that can be transferred elsewhere. (more…)
Has (Former) Yemeni President Saleh Really Ceded Power?
“I have 33 years of experience in power and I know the difficulties, I know the negatives and positives. The one who clings to power is mad.” – Former President Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen
March 11, 2011: Yemen’s Leader Proposes Shifting Some Powers
March 25, 2011: President Saleh of Yemen Is in Talks on Exit
April 6, 2011: Saleh determined to set exit terms
April 24, 2011: Yemen’s president agrees to resign
May 19, 2011: Yemeni President to Sign Agreement to Leave Power
May 21, 2011: Saleh Calls for Early Elections in Yemen
June 6, 2011: Protesters in Yemen Rejoice as Leader Goes to Saudi Arabia
June 10, 2011: Saleh’s relatives retain much power in Yemen
August 10, 2011: Yemen’s Saleh says will leave power in coming days
September 13, 2011: Yemeni Leader Says Deputy Can Pursue Deal to Transfer Power
September 24, 2011: Yemen’s President Saleh Abruptly Returns From Saudi Arabia
September 26, 2011: Saleh Confirms Support for Yemen Transfer of Power
September 30, 2011: Saleh says he won’t resign until rivals are out
October 9, 2011: Yemen’s Leader Says He’ll ‘Reject Power’; Foes Are Skeptical
October 10, 2011: Yemen president wants to leave power
November 14, 2011: Yemen’s Ali Abdullah Saleh says he’ll step down in 90 days — maybe
November 23, 2011: Yemen Leader, Saleh, Agrees to End 3-Decade Rule
November 28, 2011: Yemen’s President Orders Amnesty Despite Ceded Power
February 20, 2012: Saleh Cedes Authority in Yemen, but Hopes to Retain Influence
What do you think?
Ending Conflict in the Horn of Africa
The Nordic Africa Institute has published an excellent paper on one of the world’s most conflict prone regions: the Horn of Africa (which, broadly defined, encompasses Somalia/Somaliland, Eritrea, Djibouti, Ethiopia, and parts of Kenya, Sudan, and Southern Sudan).
Kidane Mengisteab, the author, does an especially good job analyzing “the core and contextual factors” that underlay the large number of “inter-state, intra-state and communal” conflicts that have long plagued the region. By examining history, social relationships, the fragmentation of institutions, and regional politics, the paper is able to get at the driving forces that have created vicious cycles of social exclusion, weak government, and zero sum competition for resources. It correctly articulates that any solution will have to include simultaneous efforts on “diversity management, nation-building, democratization, and institutional reform at all levels.” (more…)
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