Tag Archives: Libya
Differentiating Between Fragile States and Transition Countries
The term “fragile states” is much abused.
Policymakers, development researchers, politicians, and the media seem to think that every country experiencing a period of instability or bothered by certain governance problems is “fragile.” As a result, they group a wide range of countries experiencing vastly different types of problems together—creating a mass of confusion in the process.
Such thinking means that the term as currently used has very little value as an analytical tool. Instead it has become a catchall phrase to explain any situation that seems “fragile” even if the fragility is likely to be ephemeral. It also means that states that are structurally fragile but that have none of the most obvious symptoms of fragility (such as Syria before 2011) do not get considered as one.
The Arab Spring shows the vacuousness of this approach. Before 2011, few of the countries currently in turmoil were considered fragile. Now almost all of them are. How can both these things be true? (more…)
Recent Articles on Fragile States Worth Reading
See below for links on the DRC, Burundi, Pakistan, Azerbaijan, Mauritania, Libya, the relationship between ethnicity and corruption, a new synthesis of recent research, and the new structural economics. (more…)
More on Africa, Central Asia, Conflict and Security, South Asia
Libya: Tripoli (and others) Should Welcome Benghazi’s Demand for Autonomy
Last week, 3,000 militia and tribal leaders from eastern Libya announced unilateral plans to begin establishing their own autonomous government. They demanded a return to the loose federation that existed before Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi came to power in 1969.
Predictably, the leaders of the National Transitional Council (NTC) in Tripoli rejected these calls. Mustafa Abdel Jalil, head of the National Transitional Council, even claimed that they were inspired by elements loyal to Gaddafi’s old regime.
This is a mistake. Although Libya would in an ideal world be just fine with a unitary government built around a single national assembly, it is more likely to create a robust state that can meet the needs of its people if it empowers its regions. (more…)
Understanding Libya: The Role of Ethnic and Tribal Groups in Any Political Settlement
Getting rid of dictators is much easier than building a political order to replace them. This is especially true in countries with a limited sense of nationhood, as is the case in much of the Middle East. As a result, the Arab Spring has exposed the fragility of the Arab state.
Libya offers a cautionary tale. Muhammad Gaddafi’s reign has left it with arguably the weakest state institutions in the region, and a very limited sense of nationhood. The country’s tribes remain all-important, and given the armed militias that many now control the National Transitional Council’s (NTC) is going to struggle to exert its authority for an extended period of time. A potentially violent Salafi contingent may complicate matters even more.
As a start, it is important to understand as much as possible the ethnic and tribal divisions that divide the country. (more…)
Is Libya a Success?
Despite what many commentators may believe, it is premature to declare Libya a success. As Ed Husain points out on his blog The Arab Street over at CFR.org, armed militias must still be disarmed, the central government is yet to be recognized by the country’s all-important tribes, and an increasingly violent Salafi contingent has yet to be contained.
Alina Rocha Menocal has an excellent post over at ODI on what the next steps ought to be:
As the Arab Spring has . . . shown, while getting rid of a dictator may prove relatively straightforward, building a new political order that is grounded in legitimacy and broad-based representation is likely to be much harder. Against a backdrop of great hopes and heightened expectations both within Libya and beyond, it has become clear that the country faces enormous challenges. (more…)
