Tag Archives: war
- Central Asia (including Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan)
- Democratic Republic of the Congo
- Kenya / Somalia
With the exception of #2, which fits into a more conventional state versus state conflict, all the others involve countries that are fragile states. Kenya is vulnerable because of its intervention in the failed state of Somalia.
All these fragile states suffer from sectarianism and weak government, the two primary drivers of fragility. Sectarianism is not limited to ethnicity and religion: clan divisions matter in places such as Afghanistan, Yemen, and Somalia. Weak government comes in many shades: Pakistan’s works reasonably well; Somalia has been without a state since 1991.
For some reason, Libya and Iraq are off the list even though both are vulnerable to a renewal of conflict in some form in the next 12 months. And the type of low level violence that infects parts of Russia, India, Africa, and Central America does not seem to be considered even though the number of dead may be greater than in many of these places.