Tag Archives: war
Comparing Different Theories on the Causes of Conflict
What causes conflict?
There have been many grand theories, each based on a certain interpretation of facts in the belief that patterns repeat themselves over and over again. Although each situation is different, these theories help frame debates, set priorities, and provide alternative lens with which to view specific cases. Since the end of the Cold War, theorists have emphasized economics and identity because ethnic identities have played a greater and geopolitics a lesser role in civil war than previously. (more…)
More on Conflict and Security, Governance, Identity, Review
How Long is the Assad Regime Likely to Survive in Syria?
Joshua Landis, who runs the blog Syria Comment and teaches at the University of Oklahoma, has a great essay for Middle East Policy on the prospects for the Assad regime in Syria. He believes it will last at least into 2013: (more…)
Ten conflicts to watch in 2012
Louise Arbour, President and CEO of the International Crisis Group, has a nice article on ForeignPolicy.com, listing the ten places where conflict is most likely to occur in 2012:
- Syria
- Iran/Israel
- Afghanistan
- Pakistan
- Yemen
- Central Asia (including Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan)
- Burundi
- Democratic Republic of the Congo
- Kenya / Somalia
- Venezuela
With the exception of #2, which fits into a more conventional state versus state conflict, all the others involve countries that are fragile states. Kenya is vulnerable because of its intervention in the failed state of Somalia.
All these fragile states suffer from sectarianism and weak government, the two primary drivers of fragility. Sectarianism is not limited to ethnicity and religion: clan divisions matter in places such as Afghanistan, Yemen, and Somalia. Weak government comes in many shades: Pakistan’s works reasonably well; Somalia has been without a state since 1991.
For some reason, Libya and Iraq are off the list even though both are vulnerable to a renewal of conflict in some form in the next 12 months. And the type of low level violence that infects parts of Russia, India, Africa, and Central America does not seem to be considered even though the number of dead may be greater than in many of these places.
